What's happening: Mill Valley recorded 8 single-family home sales in July, down from 23 in June and down 38.5% from July 2025, according to data from the Marin County Assessor-Recorder-County Clerk. The median sale price was $2,800,000, up 16.7% from a year earlier. Redfin's rolling three-month count for the broader 94941 zip showed 114 homes sold through July, up 14.0% year over year.
Why it matters: The mean sale price rose 68.1% in July against that 16.7% median gain, a wider spread than June's 23.5% mean versus 13.1% median, a sign July's small sample leaned harder on a few higher-priced sales.
The context: Mill Valley's July median ran 61.8% above the county's $1,730,000, the widest gap over the county figure so far this year. Sales from April through July are up 40.4% year over year, at an average monthly median up 14.6%.
Zillow's home value index for the zip code, a longer-run smoothed measure rather than a monthly transaction count, has risen every month for a full year now, a steadier read than any single month's sales figures can offer on their own.
San Francisco's own market had its most competitive month in years. Buyers there paid an average of 26% over asking price in July, the highest overbid ratio in at least two decades, surpassing even the run-up during the Airbnb and Uber IPO years, according to a report this month from The Real Deal, a real estate trade publication, citing Compass brokerage data. Listings in the city fell 41% year over year even as sales dropped only 11%, a supply gap The Real Deal ties to San Francisco's expanding AI industry.
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