What's happening: Marin Municipal Water District's board voted 5-0 Tuesday to adopt the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan, a state-required blueprint covering water supply and demand through 2050. The vote combined the main plan with a companion Water Shortage Contingency Plan, following two public hearings since June.
Why it matters: This document is how Marin Water tells the state, and its own ratepayers, that there's enough water to go around for the next 25 years. Mill Valley sits inside the district's service area, so the growth assumptions and supply math here apply directly to the system this town draws from.
Bon Tempe Lake, with Mount Tam rising behind it. The reservoir sits inside Marin Water's protected watershed, part of the same seven-reservoir system behind the numbers in this week's water supply story. (MVB, June 9)
The numbers: The plan projects the district's service area will grow by nearly a third by 2050, from about 188,000 residents today to roughly 248,000. The plan also shifts its assumption about future construction: prior plans assumed 90 percent single family construction going forward, this one assumes a 50/50 split with multifamily.
Director Ranjiv Khush said he was comfortable with how staff built the demand forecast, pointing to the choice to base water use estimates on 2017 through 2019, a period before pandemic spikes and drought restrictions scrambled the data. "Using data that we have some confidence in at this point makes sense to me," he said.
Despite that population growth, total potable water demand in the plan barely moves: about 24,355 acre-feet a year in 2030, rising to about 25,350 by 2050, an increase of roughly 4 percent.
An acre-foot, the standard unit in water planning, is roughly enough water to flood a football field one foot deep. Passive conservation, savings that happen automatically as older plumbing is replaced under state and CALGreen codes, is projected to save the equivalent of about 2,740 football fields' worth of water a year by 2050. The district's new smart meters save about half that.
The debate: During public comment, two ratepayers argued the plan may be overestimating how much water Marin Water's future growth will actually need.
Martha Davis, representing the Nicasio Landowners Association, told the board the plan applies the same water-use rate to new apartments as to decades-old housing stock. Her point: a new unit built under today's state efficiency codes, with low-flow fixtures and less outdoor irrigation space, almost certainly uses less water than an older one. By averaging the two together, she argued, the plan may be inflating its demand projections for exactly the kind of housing it expects more of. She said water agencies that keep assuming new development uses as much water as old development eventually get caught out when real demand doesn't rise as projected, and that the district should "give the development community the credit that they deserve for the conservation they're doing."
Phil Sotter, a Woodacre resident and frequent commenter on district water policy, raised a related inconsistency: the plan gives explicit future credit to the district's new AMI smart meters, but none to its existing $3-million-a-year conservation team, which already runs leak detection and lawn replacement programs today. He argued that leaving the team's results out of the projections risks sending "a discouraging message" to the people running those programs and the ratepayers funding them.
Neither critique argues Marin Water is short on water. Both argue the opposite direction: that the district's own numbers may be more conservative, meaning higher, than the reality of new construction and existing conservation programs actually justifies. That matters beyond the math: demand projections like these are part of what the district eventually points to when it justifies future supply projects and the rate increases that pay for them.
That debate is about how much water future growth will need. A separate question in the plan is whether the water on hand could ever fall short, no matter how demand is projected.
What's at stake: Every test the state requires the district to run says Marin Water is fine through 2050. Even in the tightest year of the mandated five-year drought scenario, the district shows a surplus of just over 38,000 acre-feet. Normal years show a cushion nearly 60,000 acre-feet deep.
Khush isn't convinced that cushion is as comfortable as it sounds. He said that if the district ever actually found itself down to the reservoir levels the state's test treats as safe, "our heads would be on fire."
His instinct lines up with a test the district built on its own. Separately from what the state requires, staff modeled a harsher scenario, based on worse drought conditions, that shows a shortfall of nearly 4,800 acre-feet by the fourth year of an extreme drought in the 2040s, even after mandatory rationing cuts demand by 20 percent. Staff wrote plainly in their report to the board that the state's required scenarios "fail to reflect this vulnerability to drought conditions."
What's next: The district has 30 days to file the finalized plan with the state, Marin County and local cities including Mill Valley. No rates, zoning, or service changes result from this vote. The next required update comes in 2030.
🌱 If you think Mill Valley deserves this kind of coverage, sharing it with one person today is the most direct way to help it grow.
🌱 If you think Mill Valley deserves this kind of coverage, sharing it with one person today is the most direct way to help it grow. You have at least {{rp_num_referrals}} referral(s) already and are only {{rp_num_referrals_until_next_milestone}} more away from receiving a {{rp_next_milestone_name}}.
This week in Mill Valley history: The day Homestead Valley held its breath
Members of the public watching the hostage drama unfold in Homestead Valley (Photo: John Paoli, Mill Valley Record via California Digital Newspaper Collection)
On the afternoon of Friday, July 27, 1979, two men robbed the Bret Harte Market at 93 Woodland Avenue in San Rafael, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. One fired a shot at the store owner, who ducked behind the counter. A woman customer fainted. The two men fled in a car.
Mill Valley police spotted it on Camino Alto and gave chase. One suspect surrendered at Sycamore Avenue. The other, Jonathan Ward, 29, raced to Homestead Valley, ran through the gate at 207 Melrose Avenue, kicked the front door open and disappeared inside. Seconds later, he shoved Orville Erringer outside at gunpoint and retreated into the house with Orville's wife, Letty.
Officers dispersed a crowd of children playing around Homestead School, now Marin Horizon School, and sealed off the neighborhood. More than 35 sheriff's deputies, California Highway Patrol officers and Mill Valley police filtered into the wooded streets. A command post went up at the Tamalpais Fire District station next door. Ward's parents and a sister were brought from Santa Rosa.
A member of the Marin County Sheriff’s Office special team ducks behind a car. (Photo: John Paoli, Mill Valley Record via California Digital Newspaper Collection)
Ward told negotiators he was coming off heroin, had recently been released from a state narcotics treatment facility at Corona and would not be taken alive. He also said he didn't want to hurt anyone. Sheriff Al Howenstein asked radio and television reporters to broadcast that no one had been injured in the robbery, so Ward would feel more secure hearing it on the news.
The negotiators said later that their job was considerably easier because of Letty Erringer, the San Francisco Examiner reported. She had a background in counseling and was able to help keep Ward calm.
At 7:13pm, deputies in jungle fatigues carrying rifles scurried into positions around the front door. Two minutes later, Letty walked slowly out of the house and dropped a .45-caliber automatic gingerly into Howenstein's hands. The gun was cocked. She went back inside briefly, then came out again to join her family. At 7:50pm, a squad car backed into the fire station and sped away. Ward was lying handcuffed, head down, on the floor of the back seat. He had spent 30 minutes with his family first, as agreed.
The Erringers and their three children - Alan, Elizabeth and Mary - refused to speak to reporters, according to the Mill Valley Record. They said they were going out to dinner together.
The front page of the Mill Valley Record from August 1, 1979, at the time edited by Eric Newton, who resides in Mill Valley today. (California Digital Newspaper Collection)
Eric Newton, who lives in Almonte today, wrote that Record account. He was 21 years old and two months into his job as managing editor - fresh out of San Francisco State's journalism school. He had been to big stories before. "The Dan White riot, for example," he told the Mill Valley Briefing this week. "But this was the first big media event I was covering for my own publication. I think the energy in the story reflected how jarring it was to the residents. It was a media scene the likes of which the neighborhood had never seen."
The Mill Valley Historical Society published its own account of the episode in 2005, noting that the neighborhood's dogs - usually chain-barking at dinnertime - had gone silent, and the kids who normally gathered around Homestead School were gone.
Letty Erringer died October 20, 2021, at the age of 92. Her family's obituary in the Marin Independent Journal noted that her training as a counselor "came in useful in an event where a frantic young man with a gun burst into their house in Homestead Valley." Of her passing, Orville said: "She's my love, my light, and my life."
Sources: San Francisco Chronicle, July 28, 1979 (Don Wegars); San Francisco Examiner, July 28, 1979 (Alice Yarish and Tim Reiterman); Mill Valley Record, August 1, 1979 (Eric Newton); Mill Valley Historical Society, December 2005 (Chuck Oldenburg); Letty Erringer obituary, Marin Independent Journal, October 2021.
🚧 City finishes two weeks of paving, look up when your street's turn is coming
The city wrapped up the bulk of its two-week slurry seal push, hitting Miller Ave, Elm Ave, La Goma Street and dozens of other streets between July 13 and 23. Your street wasn't touched at all? We turned the city's five-year paving plan into a searchable tool so you can see exactly if and when your turn is coming: projects.millvalleybriefing.com/roads/
What we covered this week
🌳 A Heritage Coast Redwood on E. Blithedale Avenue is at the center of a dispute between roots and pipes, and the property owner wants it gone. City staff are recommending the tree stay standing. We reported on what the arborists found, the alternatives on the table and why fire risk isn't the issue here.
🛣️ The road tax vote we previewed for Monday didn't happen. The city canceled the meeting over a technical noticing issue, which shortened the window to get the measure to the county before the November ballot deadline. We reported on what changed and what's next for the renewal.
🛤️ Eleven Tam Valley homes could soon be taxed to fix the private road they share, after decades of the surface falling apart with no formal way to pay for repairs. The county says the vote is now strictly up or down. We reported on who pays what, for how long and what some residents objected to before the ballot language was set.
🏠 Mill Valley home sales cooled in May, but prices didn't get the memo. Fewer homes changed hands than the month before, and the ones that sold went for well over asking. We reported on the numbers behind the slowdown and what's driving the gap with the rest of the county.
If you want to read about any of these stories as they develop, the daily Briefing lands in your inbox Monday through Friday at 6am. (Mon/Wed/Fri through August.) A paid subscription makes this reader-funded, local news operation possible. It’s $12 per month, which you can cancel anytime, and the annual subscription comes out to less than $2.50 a week. Upgrading is only two clicks if you use Apple Pay.
Mill Valley's 12U All-Stars drop tournament opener to El Dorado Hills, must win out to stay alive
The hometowns of all seven teams in the NorCal state tournament: Mill Valley in green and host Chico in red. (MVB, Google Maps)
Mill Valley's 12U All-Stars lost their Northern California state tournament opener 12-5 to El Dorado Hills Saturday in Chico.
Mill Valley battled back from an early deficit, with Laszlo Winn's third-inning double driving in a run and Paxton King later drawing a bases-loaded walk to tie the game 2-2. But El Dorado Hills pulled away with five runs in the fifth inning and five more in the sixth.
Mill Valley's offense stayed alive to the end. Wyatt Droege had two hits and an RBI, and Jack Devlin, Tate Shackleton and Paxton King each drove in runs during a three-run rally in the sixth.
What's next: The loss is only the first in this double-elimination tournament for Mill Valley. They play Monday at 5:30pm against the loser of Sunday's noon game, the first of three straight elimination games Mill Valley would need to win to reach the state final.
📅 Next week in Mill Valley
Tue, Jul 28 – Open Mic Night, Sweetwater, 7pm. Head over to 19 Corte Madera Ave for an evening showcasing local Bay Area musical talent. Performers get 2 songs / 10 minutes on stage with a full backline available (bass/guitar amps, drums, piano). Sign-ups open via email ([email protected]) until 3pm on Tuesday. Free entry; all ages.
Tue, Jul 28 – Tuesday Night Comedy, Throckmorton Theatre, 8-10pm. Throckmorton’s acclaimed weekly comedy night brings a theater-style stage and an intimate club atmosphere to 142 Throckmorton Ave. Tonight’s laugh-out-loud lineup features fresh rising talent alongside top-tier veteran comics. Doors open at 7:30pm.
Wed, Jul 29 – Wednesday on Stage: Magician Perry Yan, Mill Valley Public Library Outdoor Amphitheater, 3:30-4:30pm. Bring the family to 375 Throckmorton Ave for a high-energy, interactive magic show packed with astonishing illusions, comedy, sleight-of-hand tricks, and storytelling. Free admission; open to all ages.
Wed, Jul 29 – Petty Theft: San Francisco Tribute to Tom Petty, The Junction Beer Garden, 7pm. San Francisco's premier Tom Petty and The Heartbreakers tribute band brings Petty’s timeless rock anthems to the outdoor canopy at 226 Shoreline Hwy. All ages welcome; tickets are $32 in advance and $37 at the door.
Wed, Jul 29 – Miles Schon with Michael Richter and Jay Middleton & Friends, Sweetwater, 8pm. Electrifying guitarist and songwriter Miles Schon hits the stage at 19 Corte Madera Ave, blending rock, blues, jazz, and funk into a soulful, genre-transcending live showcase. All ages; doors open at 7pm.
Thu, Jul 30 – Trivia Night, The Depot Cafe and Bookstore, 5:30pm. Co-hosts Lynne and Simon "The Brit" lead a popular night of quiz show fun and playful group therapy on the plaza. Picture trivia, wild categories, and bragging rights await those who know a little too much about obscure topics.
Thu, Jul 30 – Sam Bush, Sweetwater, 8pm. The "King of Telluride" and father of newgrass brings his legendary mandolin and fiddle mastery to 19 Corte Madera Ave. Expect a genre-blending performance packed with jazz improvisation, rock-and-roll jam, and bluegrass soul. All ages; doors open at 7pm.
Fri, Jul 31 – Summer Movie Series: Happy Feet, Mill Valley Public Library, 3-4:30pm. Head to the Creekside Room at 375 Throckmorton Ave for a free family screening of Happy Feet, following Mumble's tap-dancing adventures across Antarctica. Free entry; no registration required.
Fri, Jul 31 – Musical Feast, The Depot Cafe and Bookstore, 5:30pm. An alt-country-folk-rock ensemble blending Bonnie Raitt, John Prine, Springsteen, and Petty with guitars, flute, violin, and gorgeous vocal harmonies live on the plaza. Free entry; all ages welcome.
Fri, Jul 31 – Vonda Shepard (Seated Show), Sweetwater, 8pm. Acclaimed singer-songwriter and Ally McBeal music producer Vonda Shepard performs live at 19 Corte Madera Ave in support of her album Red Light/Green Light. All ages; doors open at 7pm.
Sat, Aug 1 – Mother Pluckers, The Depot Cafe and Bookstore, 5:30pm. Enjoy a live outdoor evening performance on the downtown plaza with dynamic acoustic arrangements and local favorite tunes. Free entry; open to all ages.
Sat, Aug 1 – Big Brother & The Holding Company, Sweetwater, 8pm. Experience a night of classic Bay Area psychedelic rock and blues history as founding members Peter Albin and Dave Getz are joined by vocalist Darby Gould to perform iconic classics like "Piece of My Heart" at 19 Corte Madera Ave. All ages; doors open at 7pm.
Sun, Aug 2 – Moonalice (Sunday Matinee), Sweetwater, 1pm. Catch an exuberant afternoon set of psychedelic soul and rock-tinged Americana featuring Lester Chambers and Pete Sears at 19 Corte Madera Ave. All ages; doors open at 12pm.
Sun, Aug 2 – Elaine Dempsey, The Depot Cafe and Bookstore, 4-6pm. Wind down your weekend on the downtown plaza with an early evening live set of soulful acoustic melodies and folk-inspired originals. Free entry; open to all ages.
🔍 Businesses and venues mentioned in this section are covered on editorial merit only. No business has paid for coverage. Promotional content is always labeled.
