What's happening: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said in its Aug. 13 diagnostic discussion that there is a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter, and specifically a 69% chance that the October-December 2026 season produces a historic event, one that would exceed every El Niño on record since 1950.
The Marin County Board of Supervisors received a related briefing Aug. 18 from Chief Resilience Officer Nick Brubaker and Public Works Director Chris Blunk, based on a staff report from Emergency Management Director Steven Torrence and Fire Chief Jason Weber.
Why it matters: For 94941, the exposure runs through Tam Junction. A resident told the board during public comment that flooding along Highway 1 near Manzanita and the Shoreline has been left out of past county flood studies, even though it regularly cuts off the corridor. Supervisor Stephanie Moulton-Peters told the board a crew led by Chris Chamberlain, Director and General Manager of Marin County Parks, sandbagged the stretch near Bothin Marsh last year to protect Tam Junction businesses.
The context: Brubaker and Blunk told the board the county has identified 32 sandbag locations and staged 11 portable pumps. Blunk said Public Works has inspected 6,000 culverts, lining them where cost effective, and cleared 350 storm drains and catch basins; county presentation slides separately put hazardous tree removal at 60.
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